Last updated: October 8, 2026. We update this tracker weekly as odds shift and new casting reporting lands. Odds cited are bookmaker averages from early October 2026.
The $8.45 Billion Question: Who Becomes 007 Next?
Five years have passed since Daniel Craig’s James Bond sacrificed himself on a missile-struck island in No Time to Die — the first time in six decades that 007 actually died on screen. Since then, the most famous casting question in cinema has hung in the air unanswered: who will be the next James Bond?
Now, in late 2026, the answer appears closer than ever. With Denis Villeneuve signed to direct Bond 26, Peaky Blinders creator Steven Knight writing the screenplay, and Amazon MGM Studios steering the franchise for the first time, the pieces are falling into place. Producer Amy Pascal has called the end of 2026 a “good bet” for the big announcement — and the betting markets have gone into overdrive.
Here’s everything we know about the race to decide who will be the next James Bond.
Breaking: The Casting May Already Be Decided
The rumour mill exploded in September 2026 when Steven Knight confirmed that casting for the next Bond has been finalised — the studio knows who it wants, even if the name remains under wraps. That single confirmation transformed months of speculation about who will be the next James Bond into something far more concrete.
Adding fuel to the fire, Gary Oldman — co-star of Slow Horses alongside frontrunner Jack Lowden — said in a television interview that the role “has been cast” but simply not announced yet. When a respected industry veteran speaks that plainly, the market listens: Lowden’s odds shortened dramatically within hours.
Reports also suggest screen tests are scheduled for autumn 2026 — with auditions for the next round reportedly eyed for August — which means an official reveal before the year ends looks increasingly likely.
The 11 Leading Candidates to Be the Next James Bond
Odds below are aggregated from bookmaker averages via Oddspedia, OLBG and Action Network, accurate as of early October 2026. Markets move fast on every rumour — treat them as a temperature check, not a coronation.
One pattern is worth noting: this market has been unusually sensitive to insider signals. Richard Osman’s podcast remark moved Lowden from mid-market outsider to favourite almost overnight, and Gary Oldman’s on-air comments did the same a second time. When screenwriter Steven Knight then confirmed that casting is finalised, the market treated it as corroboration. None of it is an announcement — but the specificity of the signals this time is unlike previous cycles.
1. Jack Lowden — The Clear Favourite
Odds: 5/6 (implied probability ~54%). The Scottish star of Apple TV+’s Slow Horses has surged from outsider to odds-on favourite. Thursday Murder Club author Richard Osman said on his podcast that Lowden was being “strongly considered,” and his Slow Horses co-star Gary Oldman publicly backed him, saying: “I think he’d be amazing.” Bookmakers reacted overnight, installing him at the head of the field with an implied probability above 50%.
Why he fits: At 36, he’s the right age for a long tenure. He’s already played an MI5 operative for years as River Cartwright on Slow Horses, has blockbuster credentials from Dunkirk, and — deliciously — would be the first Scottish Bond since Sean Connery himself originated the role in 1962.
The knock against him: Reports suggest Villeneuve and Amazon want someone in their late twenties to early thirties who can headline the franchise for a decade or more. At 36, Lowden sits right on the edge of that bracket. Whether acting range and momentum matter more than the age math is the single biggest open question in this race.
2. Callum Turner — The Long-Time Contender
Odds: 3/1 (implied probability ~25%). The Masters of the Air star led the betting for much of early 2026, at one point commanding over 60% implied probability, before being overtaken by Lowden. He remains firmly in second place and has never really left the conversation.
Why he fits: Classic leading-man looks, proven in both prestige television (The Capture) and franchise filmmaking (Fantastic Beasts), and the right side of 40 for a multi-film commitment. He has big-production experience without being so fused to one character that audiences couldn’t accept him as Bond.
The knock against him: Momentum. He has been the bridesmaid of this market for two years; the money — and the insider whispers — have moved to Lowden.
3. Jack Barton — The Rising Star
Odds: 6/1 (implied probability ~14%). The SAS Rogue Heroes actor came from nowhere to become a serious contender in 2026, holding third place on several bookmaker boards.
Why he fits: His military-drama background gives him exactly the kind of physical credibility the role demands, and he matches the reported brief — British, fresh-faced, and young enough for a 10-to-12-year tenure.
The knock against him: Profile. He is the least-known name in the top tier, and Bond castings have historically balanced freshness with a baseline of star recognition.
4. Aaron Taylor-Johnson — The Perennial Name
Odds: 12/1 (implied probability ~8%). He’s been linked to the tuxedo for years, reportedly even screen-testing back in 2022. The Kraven the Hunter and Bullet Train star has the action pedigree, though his odds have drifted as fresher faces emerged.
Why he fits: Proven action leading man with franchise experience and the physicality the role demands. Nobody would need to imagine him in a fight scene.
The knock against him: Familiarity. With Amazon reportedly favouring a genuine reinvention over a continuation, a long-rumoured, heavily exposed candidate may feel like yesterday’s conversation.
5. Theo James — The Suave Outsider
Odds: 10/1 (implied probability ~9%). The White Lotus and Divergent star brings classic Bond suaveness and has cycled through the betting conversation for years.
Why he fits: Polished leading-man charisma, comfortable in both prestige TV and big-canvas storytelling. He looks like Bond walked off a yacht.
The knock against him: The Divergent franchise baggage and a career that has leaned more TV than cinema at the very top level.
6. Paul Mescal — The Bold Arthouse Choice
Odds: longer than 16/1. The Normal People and Gladiator II star would be the bold, arthouse choice — a signal that Amazon wants to rebuild Bond from the acting up.
Why he fits: Extraordinary actor, the right age, and genuine cultural heat. Casting him would announce a new era as loudly as Craig’s casting did in 2005.
The knock against him: Zero action pedigree, and an arthouse aura that sits uneasily with a blockbuster machine. He’d be the biggest gamble on this list.
7. Harris Dickinson — The Young Contender
Odds: 4/1 to 5/1 (implied probability ~17–20%). The Triangle of Sadness and Babygirl star sits surprisingly high on several boards and fits the reported youth direction perfectly.
Why he fits: Young, magnetic, and already proven opposite heavyweight ensembles. He is exactly the “fresh face” profile Amazon is said to want.
The knock against him: When asked directly about Bond, his verbatim answer was “Nah.” Denials mean little in casting season — but it’s a data point.
8. Jacob Elordi — The Meeting Man
Odds: mid-field, shortening. The Euphoria, Saltburn and Priscilla star has been the subject of reported meetings with the director’s camp. He would be the youngest Bond ever cast and only the second Australian after George Lazenby.
Why he fits: Towering screen presence and undeniable current heat. He photographs like a leading man from another era.
The knock against him: Extreme youth and the risk of Euphoria typecasting. A Bond that young would redefine the character’s centre of gravity.
9. Jack O’Connell — The Gritty Pick
Odds: 8/1 (implied probability ~11%). The Unbroken and ’71 star — who also headlined SAS Rogue Heroes alongside Barton — brings the raw physical intensity Craig made fashionable.
Why he fits: A working-class edge and proven toughness. If Amazon wants Craig’s grit without Craig’s baggage, O’Connell is the template.
The knock against him: He is the least conventionally “suave” name in the top ten, and Bond has always needed the tuxedo as much as the scars.
10. Josh O’Connor — The Left-Field Choice
Odds: 10/1 (implied probability ~9%). The Crown, Challengers and La Chimera have shown remarkable range, and bookmakers have kept him in the frame.
Why he fits: Vulnerability and unpredictability — qualities that could reshape Bond rather than recreate the Craig era. A genuinely interesting actor’s choice.
The knock against him: No action background whatsoever. Casting him would mean the next film leans on character over combat.
11. Tom Francis — The Stage Dark Horse
Odds: longer, but climbing. The 26-year-old Olivier-winning star of Sunset Boulevard on stage reportedly auditioned, per Variety — and his odds shortened immediately on the news.
Why he fits: The youth-vote direction in its purest form: raw talent, stage-honed presence, and a blank cinematic slate Amazon could mould.
The knock against him: Almost no screen profile. He would be the biggest leap of faith since a then-unknown Craig was announced to tabloid fury in 2005 — and we know how that turned out.
The Scottish star of Apple TV+’s Slow Horses has surged from outsider to odds-on favourite. After Thursday Murder Club author Richard Osman said on his podcast that Lowden was being “strongly considered,” and Oldman publicly backed him, bookmakers installed him at the head of the field with an implied probability above 50%. If the whispers are right, we may already know who will be the next James Bond.
Beyond the Frontrunners: Three More Names in the Mix
Henry Cavill remains the perpetual fan favourite — he was the runner-up to Daniel Craig for Casino Royale back in 2005, and his turns in Man of Steel and The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare keep him in the conversation, though his age and packed schedule count against him.
James Norton (Happy Valley, McMafia) has the suave Connery-Brosnan archetype down pat and has been linked to the role for years.
Damson Idris (Snowfall, F1) would bring a thoroughly modern charisma to 007.
The Official Casting Brief: What the Studio Demands
Producer Amy Pascal has been specific about the brief: the studio wants an actor in their late 20s to mid 30s who can commit to the role for 10 to 12 years — a genuine reinvention rather than a continuation of the Craig era. The mandate, reportedly driven by casting director Nina Gold, favours a fresh British or Commonwealth actor over an established Hollywood star, prioritising charisma, physical credibility, and an air of mystery.
Why he fits: At 36, he’s the right age for a long tenure. He’s already played an MI5 operative for years on Slow Horses, has blockbuster credentials from Dunkirk, and — deliciously — would be the first Scottish Bond since Sean Connery himself.
Why he might not: He’s arguably less of a global box-office name than Amazon might want for launching its Bond era.
What Is Amazon MGM Actually Looking For?
Multiple reports point in the same direction: a younger, fresher 007. The Amazon era is expected to be a genuine reinvention rather than a continuation of the Craig years. Long-rumoured older contenders like Henry Cavill and Idris Elba have effectively aged out of the conversation — the studio wants an actor who can carry the franchise for 10 to 15 years. Ultimately, who will be the next James Bond will define the Amazon era for a generation.
Denis Villeneuve’s involvement is equally telling. The Dune director doesn’t do lightweight franchise fare; his Bond is expected to be grand, serious, and cinematic in the way Skyfall was for the Craig era. Whoever wears the tuxedo next will need to match that ambition — and the world is watching to see who will be the next James Bond.
Read Also: 5 Unmade James Bond Movies That Would Have Changed the Franchise Forever
Bond 26: Everything We Know So Far
- Director: Denis Villeneuve (Dune, Blade Runner 2049)
- Writer: Steven Knight (Peaky Blinders)
- Studio: Amazon MGM Studios — the first Bond film of the Amazon era
- Status: Casting reportedly finalised; screen tests autumn 2026
- Announcement: Expected by end of 2026, per producer Amy Pascal
After Amazon’s $8.45 billion acquisition of MGM, this film carries enormous expectations — it’s not just a casting decision, it’s the launch of Bond as a streaming-era mega-franchise.
When Will We Officially Know?
All signs point to before the end of 2026. With screen tests in the autumn and Pascal’s own timeline, the smart money is on a carefully staged reveal — likely a press event or a teaser announcement tied to the holiday season. Until Amazon MGM confirms who will be the next James Bond, expect the rumour cycle to spin faster with every passing week.
Our Take
Jack Lowden is the favourite for good reason — the insider signals are unusually specific this time, and the Connery parallel is irresistible. A Scottish Bond, an MI5 veteran from Slow Horses, at exactly the age Craig was when he started: the narrative writes itself. But there is a genuine tension in the data. The reported studio brief — late twenties to early thirties, a decade-long commitment — points slightly younger than Lowden’s 36, and Bond casting has surprised us before: nobody predicted Daniel Craig in 2005 either, and the tabloids howled for months before Casino Royale silenced them.
Keep an eye on Jack Barton as the dark horse who could still steal it — he matches the brief almost perfectly and his rise has been the fastest of any contender. And don’t dismiss Tom Francis: the history of this franchise is a history of left-field stage talent becoming definitive Bonds.
Ultimately, the choice will tell us what Amazon’s Bond is. Lowden or Turner means continuity with prestige — a safe pair of hands for a $8.45 billion asset. Elordi, Francis or Mescal means reinvention, a deliberate break with the Craig era. Either way, the day Amazon MGM reveals who will be the next James Bond will be one of the biggest entertainment stories of the decade. We’ll update this article the moment it’s official — bookmark this page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Has the next James Bond been confirmed?
No. As of September 2026, Amazon MGM Studios has made no official announcement, though screenwriter Steven Knight has confirmed casting is finalised.
Who is the favourite to be the next James Bond?
Jack Lowden leads the bookmakers’ odds and prediction markets, ahead of Callum Turner and Jack Barton.
When will the next James Bond be announced?
Producer Amy Pascal has suggested the end of 2026 is a good bet, with screen tests reportedly set for autumn.
Who is directing Bond 26?
Denis Villeneuve (Dune) will direct, with Steven Knight (Peaky Blinders) writing the screenplay — the first Bond film of the Amazon MGM era.
Kunal is the founder and editor of Media1Gyan.com, an independent James Bond 007 fan blog. A lifelong James Bond fan, he started Media1Gyan to give fellow fans clear, well-researched coverage of the world of 007 — from the classic Eon films to the new Amazon-MGM era and the road to Bond 26. On Media1Gyan, Kunal covers Bond movie news and casting rumors, ranked listicles (villains, Bond girls, theme songs, gadgets), explainers on Bond history and trivia, and deep dives into characters like Vesper Lynd and Ernst Stavro Blofeld. Every article is researched from publicly available information and reliable sources, and reviewed for accuracy before publishing. His approach is fan-first: no hype without sourcing, no rumors presented as fact, and complex Bond lore explained in plain language. When he covers developing stories like the next James Bond casting, articles are updated as new information breaks. Follow Media1Gyan.com for daily James Bond coverage — news, rankings, and guides for fans around the world.
